When will it end?

Thus asketh the Times today of some noted observers: When Will It End?

I wasn't polled (rats!) but the list of experts is nonetheless impressive, including Roach, Ferguson, Blinder, Roubini, Reinhart etc...

The consensus, if any, is that this puppy will be with us for a very long time. As in several years, and even then bets are off. And Depression-era comparisons abound. Here's a sampling of opinions, emphases mine:

• Ferguson: So far in this recession, remember, we have had only two consecutive quarters of declining gross domestic product. At the moment, I find it quite easy to imagine two consecutive years of contraction. And I don’t rule out two more lean years after that.
• Roach: But any such whiffs of growth are likely to herald a false dawn, because the consumer remains in terrible shape....This points to an unusually anemic upturn, at best — not strong enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising to near 10 percent over the next year and a half. Since it’s hard to call that a recovery, it looks to me as if this recession won’t end until late 2010 or early 2011.
• George Cooper (economics author): If we go by the first measure we may see two or more decades of readjustment. If we go by the second, we are still probably in the early stages of the credit correction, meaning that while the technical recession could be over by the end of the year, the broader credit cycle will likely remain a significant drag on economic activity well into the next decade. Either way, we have a long way to go.
• Spence: If governments are quick and clear in their intentions and intervene in a coordinated way in both the real economy and the financial sector, we will probably have an unusually long and deep global recession through 2010. If they don’t, it is likely to be worse than that. <Note: see earlier post about Europe in disarray re 'coordinated' response. Good luck on that....>
• Roubini: So this recession may last 36 months.
  And things could get worse. We now face a 1 in 3 chance that, if appropriate policies are not put in place, this ugly U-shaped recession may turn into a more virulent L-shaped near-depression or stag-deflation (a deadly combination of economic stagnation and price deflation) like the one Japan experienced in the 1990s after its real estate and equity bubbles burst.
• Blinder: my best guess is that growth will return in the fourth quarter of this year. <This is why he's so often on CNBC!> But here’s the rub. My forecast assumes that no other (big) shoes will drop. Sad to say, shoes have been dropping like rain.

Me? I'll pick 2015, for two reasons: 1. A banking crisis lasts on average 7.2 years in developed economies (http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/rogoff/files/Aftermath.pdf) and 2. By then Americans will likely have returned to an 8-10% savings rate, and will finally feel wealthy enough to consume a little more.