Global social unrest?

After that little Calvino discursion, let's get back to the matter at hand. This afternoon, it's social unrest.

As the deepening economic meltdown spreads to every nook and cranny of the globe, the prospects for unrest are rising by the day. In a moment, I shall share some recent headlines from across the planet expressing such fears. Bad enough, under normal circumstances. But bear in mind that some of the places of potential unrest, where the meltdown is fast gaining momentum, are already some of the most dangerous and potentially explosive neighborhoods around.

To me, problem #1, overshadowing all others (which are not small and which include Iran and North Korea) is Pakistan. Nuclear-armed, a near-failed state, propped up by the military, increasingly fundamentalist, thirsting for a fight with India, and only this morning the site of an attack on Sri Lanka's cricket team! That last item seem out of place? Not at all - attacking cricket players in Pakistan is akin to attacking bishops in the Vatican. Not done. Represents an attack on one of the few central unifying national themes. To me, this is a seemingly small but very telling example that Pakistan is only a small little nudge away from full-on collapse, and that nudge could easily be their rapidly failing economy. Behold this, from Moni Mohsin in the current issue of The Boston Review, written before today's events: A personal history of Pakistan on the brink Read the entire article for a deep perspective on the mess there. but in the meantime, I offer you these excerpts. The first paragraph describes the optimism felt in December 2007, a mere 15 months ago. The second describes the scary and fast unravelling since then:

Though outraged by General Musharraf’s strong–arm tactics, Pakistanis were not despondent. The economy was strong and foreign investors looked favorably upon Pakistan as an emerging market. A national election was in the offing, and Benazir Bhutto, emerging from years of exile the leader of Pakistan’s largest and most popular political party, had returned to contest it. Though religious extremists had dug into the Tribal Areas in the north, Benazir vowed to flush them out and, with American backing, end their reign of terror. Relations with India were calmer and more open than even before. There was everything to play for.

Today that optimism has vanished. A civilian government replaced Musharraf, but Pakistan faces economic collapse: rampant inflation, unbridled capital flight, and a nose–diving rupee. Benazir Bhutto is dead, killed by the very militants she had pledged to eradicate. Islamist insurgents have annexed chunks of Pakistani territory abutting Afghanistan. A bitter civil war has made refugees of 200,000 civilians. The army, fighting its own people, is demoralised and divided. The same Pakistanis who were agitating on the streets last November are afraid to step out today; roadside and suicide bombs have killed and maimed thousands in the last year. Pakistan has reached a tipping point.

What follows is a fascinating accounting - part personal - of Pakistan's largely tragic history since its establishment in 1947. Mohsin ends things on this chilling note:

The convergence of political instability and economic collapse has driven Pakistan into a maelstrom. The Pakistani government must “own” the war against extremists, give it legitimacy, and get the people behind it. The army, too, has no choice but to abandon all notions of strategic depth, rein in rogue elements within its ranks, and back the government in executing the war honestly and efficiently. Americans, meanwhile, need to mend fences with the Pakistani people. Thus far the balance of American aid has equipped the army to fight wars and oppress its own people. Now funds must be diverted toward investment in development projects and institution–building. Pakistan’s economy needs a huge infusion of foreign and domestic investment. But political stability is a prerequisite for investment. Without it, Pakistan will tip into the abyss of a failed state.

And it's not just Pakistan, alas. More on all this in future posts, but let's leave things with a roundup of headlines from the past few days:

Economic, social fears to dominate China parliament
Bosnia faces social unrest, political crisis looms
Economic Crash Will Fuel Social Unrest
France's Sarkozy spends to head off social unrest
Tajikistan risks 'social unrest'
Crisis raises risk of social unrest in Asia

I leave you with this gem from the UK, courtesy of Macroman, who this morning asked this question: Are there going to be mass demonstrations and violence in the UK this summer? Links to an article with this headline:

MI5 ALERT ON BANK RIOTS