Thursday, February 26, 2009

I like Chris Rupkey even though he's an economist

Here he's quoted on Bloomberg, regarding the collapse in consumer confidence this month:

“Just when you think confidence can’t go any lower, the bottom falls out of it, and you can be sure the rest of the economy is not far behind,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, which had the lowest forecast. “If consumers’ spending matches their flagging spirits, this recession is going longer and deeper.”

By the lowest forecast, Bloomberg means that Rupkey came closest to forecasting this week's collapse in confidence. Behold this little gem in the same article:

The Conference Board’s confidence index dropped more than anticipated to 25, the lowest level since data began in 1967....The drop in confidence exceeded even the lowest estimate of the 72 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The median forecast called for the index to drop to 35, and projections ranged from 26.7 to 42.

(Note to self: trust not the forecasts of economists not named Roubini or Chris)

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