Friday, February 27, 2009

A great day! Not

Not, no matter what the lunatics Kneale, Kudlow, etc might spin, markets did not handle the bad news well:

WSJ

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 120 points to end the week at a fresh bear-market closing low beneath 7100. Citigroup shares plunged by 40% and GE fell 6.5% after the conglomerate said that it would cut its dividend. The blue-chip measure had its worst February on record. The S&P 500 dropped through its bear-market lows as financial and health-care stocks declined.

Here's the thing -

The worst news is, as per usu, ahead of us, not behind us. That's because consumers are, as they say, capitulating. All the endless focus on Wall St and DC entirely misses the basic point: the 70% of the economy driven by consumer spending is shrinking fast, and will not grow again for years (like 10+). Consumers have massive debt, huge equity losses, zero savings, and no credit, and are thus in no mood to spend, stimulus notwithstanding

Back to equities - Ya think corporate profits/margins can hold. or recover? Think again

Much more detailed analysis over the weekend, so stay tuned....

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