Thursday, April 23, 2009

IMF: Worst since 1945

Global Economy Called Worst Since 1945
By BRIAN KNOWLTON
The International Monetary Fund said in a report that recovery would take longer than expected, and predicted a 2.8 percent contraction this year for the United States.



Some of the juicier tidbits:



The I.M.F. projected a 1.3 percent decline in global economic activity for 2009, down sharply even from the modest 0.5 percent growth it had projected in January. In the United States, still the “epicenter” of the crisis, according to the fund, economic contraction would be even greater, at 2.8 percent this year, with zero growth for 2010. <>



“The recovery may actually be slower than usual, leading to a slow decrease in unemployment,” said Olivier Blanchard, director of the I.M.F.’s research department, at a news conference at the fund’s headquarters in Washington. “Our forecasts imply that unemployment will crest only at the end of 2010.”



“If there had been no fiscal stimulus across the world, world growth in 2009 would be 1.5 to 2 percent less,” he said. “We would be in the middle of something very close to a depression.” < href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/23/world/europe/23britain.html?ref=world">British Plan to Raise Taxes and Debt Sets Off Political Sparring< >

Here's a notable excerpt from the UK article:

....some have warned that if the recession is longer and deeper than the Brown government is predicting, the level of debt could lead to Britain’s facing a run on the pound and the possibility of having to turn to the monetary fund for emergency loans, a contingency last resorted to by a Labor government in the 1970s.




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