I'd believe housing is gonna bottom....

...If you could show me folks with the cash for a 20% down payment.

They're just not there, and won't be for years. It takes time (years) to save if you're young, and and time (years) for asset markets to recover if you're older. And our savings rate is still only ~ 4%. Unless the economy miraculously stops shedding 700,000 jobs a month, and can produce actual wage-paying jobs, where is the cash coming from for all these new homes? Not to mention new cars, refrigerators, etc...

Sure, there will be a housing 'bounce' as 'speculators' 'gamble' on 'distressed' properties in the near term. Tell me what part of that is good in the long term. Not one.

Absent a fundamental reworking of global economic imbalances, all bets for sustained recovery are off.