Thursday, April 9, 2009

Retail sales - the new norm

See this from the Times:

U.S. Retail Chains Report Another Sales Drop in March
By STEPHANIE ROSENBLOOM 1:09 PM ET
March’s sales were worse than February’s, but the rate of decline seen during the holidays has slowed.

Wall St interprets this as signs of a bottoming (decelerating decline). But the fact they miss is that these very-much-lower levels of consumption are the new American norm. No 'surge' upward from here. Just what things will be.

Why?
  1. Folks are broke: bleeding equity and savings-less
  2. Boomers are getting old, and will not, need not, consume as before
  3. GenX has been burned three times already (dot.com, housing, equities) and is in a rather large mood to save
  4. Millenials (GenY) know how to save big time and how to spend less. Internet tools very much matter here...

The MSM is still about two years behind figuring out that American over-consumption is very much over. Wall St may never get there.

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