I'm increasingly reminded of Spring 2008

All this talk of "the worst is behind us, we've got a grip" is eerily similar to the happy talk post Bear collapse last March/April

A stock rally, optimism on CNBC (what else?), actions by the Fed, analysts calling bottoms in housing, autos, etc, etc etc are in many respects the mirror image of last year at this very time.

What no one still really seems to want to admit as ever - save Obama in the least-reported line from his European trip (Obama: The American "voracious consumer market" has ended) - is that the US consumer is tapped out. And that consumer is even more tapped out now than last year. In fact, they're broke, and have no access to credit, and jobs are disappearing.

Until I hear a credible argument as to how and why folks will start spending like it's 2007, or 1999, or 1985, I cannot believe in any kind of recovery any time soon...

September will be interesting.