Back from vacation - Pakistan, maps, colonialism

Hi



Was away from electronics for a bit. Just got back. Much to post about. But let's start with this perfect little gem:

Pakistan’s British-Drawn Borders



Ends with W H Auden's famous poem 'Partition":

Unbiased at least he was when he arrived on his mission,
Having never set eyes on the land he was called to partition
Between two peoples fanatically at odds,
With their different diets and incompatible gods.

“Time,” they had briefed him in London, “is short. It’s too late
For mutual reconciliation or rational debate:
The only solution now lies in separation.
The Viceroy thinks, as you will see from his letter,
That the less you are seen in his company the better,
So we’ve arranged to provide you with other accommodation.

We can give you four judges, two Moslem and two Hindu,
To consult with, but the final decision must rest with you.”
Shut up in a lonely mansion, with police night and day
Patrolling the gardens to keep the assassins away,
He got down to work, to the task of settling the fate
Of millions. The maps at his disposal were out of date

And the Census Returns almost certainly incorrect,
But there was no time to check them, no time to inspect
Contested areas. The weather was frightfully hot,
And a bout of dysentery kept him constantly on the trot,
But in seven weeks it was done, the frontiers decided,
A continent for better or worse divided.

The next day he sailed for England, where he could quickly forget
The case, as a good lawyer must.
Return he would not,
Afraid, as he told his Club, that he might get shot.

Geopolitics getting ugly(er)

Two things in particular:

1. Taliban Seize Control of Area Near Pakistani Capital
   By JANE PERLEZ 1 minute ago
   Taliban militants have established control in the strategically important area of Buner, only 70 miles from Islamabad, law enforcement officials said.
2. Iran warns Israel not to attack nuclear sites‎ - Apr 21, 2009
   Israel has threatened military action, but last week President Shimon Peres dismissed the idea that the country was planning an attack on Iran's nuclear ...

Think the markets have accurately priced this stuff? Methinks not. Markets are very much insular, and very much imperfect. It will come as a SHOCK! to the markets when the geopolitical disaster created by Cheney/Bush blows up (literally and figuratively)

Free market capitalism + scorn at the rule of law + Oligarchy - adult supervision = the problem Obama inherits, and the mess Wall St hasn't a clue about...

International developments are, ummmm, unsettling, to put it very mildly

Three things here, in particular:

1. That crucial G-20 meeting is shaping up to be, as the Brits say, a cock-up No Clear Accord on Stimulus by Top 20 Nations
2. China, with much very good reason, is not pleased with their US 'investments' China has more to worry about than its Treasury holdings (thank you Dr Setser!)
3. Pakistan is on the brink of collapse Clash With Police Melts Into Huge Rally

So, you have, over the past three days, a confluence of almost impossibly bad news that many have long dreaded.

In order, from incredibly bad to horribly worse to unspeakably worst:

• A recurrence of 1930's-style global governmental disfunction/protectionism (which led to The Depression).
• China signaling, in no uncertain terms (for them) that the punch bowl will go away if the US doesn't get its fiscal and monetary act together. Where's the money for US debt gonna come from? And why, pray tell, won't the dollar collapse?
• The worst of all possible geo-political messes going, errr, nuclear? And in a very bad neighborhood....

Folks - things are shaping up to be calamitous, with a global Depression, if not a global economic collapse, in the cards. And I haven't even mentioned that the world's banking system is still in the final stages of self-destruction, with French Revolution-style anger being directed (quite accurately) at the 'leaders' therof. This weekend's greed mongering by AIG sure doesn't help matters

But count on most attention to be paid manana to whether the stock market rally will be sustained for another week or three.

This is getting Shakespearean. All the main players in this drama are tragically flawed, self-obsessed, fatalistic, and increasingly doomed. Yet none are able to perceive it: The G-20 cannot act in its collective interest due to parochial concerns; China cannot admit that they are very much at fault for over-saving and currency manipulation; the US is timid yet still arrogant in the face of creating and furthering the banking crisis; and the whole world is hoping that Pakistan can be fixed by act of god

Thus continue to be sewn the seeds of our destruction: we know the demons we face, yet lack the will and the capacity to face them