Showing posts with label Europe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Europe. Show all posts

Monday, April 20, 2009

Spanish deflation?

Worrisome, esp as individual EU member states and the ECB are not in internal agreement as to proper macroeconomic fiscal and monetary responses to all the problems Europe faces. If this spreads to other weakened economies - Ireland, UK, Italy, look out:

As Prices Fall, the Specter of Deflation Rises Over Spain

Excerpts, emphases mine:

“Alarm bells are going off,” said Lorenzo Amor, president of the Association of Autonomous Workers, which represents small businesses and self-employed people. “Economies can recover from deceleration, but it’s harder to recover from a deflationary situation. This could be a catastrophe for the Spanish economy.”

Deflation is not just a Spanish concern. Luxembourg, Portugal and Ireland have reported price drops, too. While the declines have been slight — and prices rose modestly after factoring out food and energy prices, which can fluctuate widely — other figures released this month suggest the risk of deflation is growing.

In Germany, wholesale prices dropped 8 percent in March from a year ago, the steepest fall since 1987. In Japan, wholesale prices fell 2.2 percent on an annual basis. In the United States, the Consumer Price Index fell 0.1 percent in March, year over year, the first decline of its kind since 1955, though prices rose 0.2 percent excluding food and energy.

“It doesn’t mean it will spread here to the U.S., but we need to look closely at Spain and other places to understand the dynamic,” says Simon Johnson, a professor at the Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund. It’s like the front line of a new virus outbreak.”

"Concern ECB Discord Deepening"

Per Bloomberg: Euro Falls to 1-Month Low on Concern Europe's Economy to Worsen

Euro Falls to One-Month Low on Concern ECB Discord Deepening

April 20 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell below $1.30 for the first time in a month and weakened versus the yen on speculation disagreement is deepening among European Central Bank policy makers on measures needed to combat the recession.

This story will gain momentum in the coming months...

Friday, April 17, 2009

GE and Citi earnings reports - spring 2008 redux...

They, again, remind me of Spring 2008, post-Bear. Like the eye of a hurricane. There's much more bad stuff ahead, and few - esp Citi - seem willing to face reality.

In Citi's case, note that they put aside $2.7Billion in reserves for loan losses, whereas yesterday JPMChase put aside 4$billion. Anyone really think that Citi's portfolio is healthier than Chase's? Please speak up.

Some of the bad stuff clearly in our (and the banks') future:
  1. The CRE disaster has only just begun. The largest real estate bankruptcy in the nation's history passed yesterday with nary a peep (General Growth Properties: Largest Real Estate Bankruptcy Thus Far ), but there's no reason to think that malls, office buildings, condo complexes, sports arena, entertainment complexes etc are gonna suddenly be in great demand
  2. The consumer is getting sicker, not healthier. Much badness ahead on credit cards, student loans, car loans, and the ongoing decline in residential real estate shows no signs of bottoming, despite rumors to the contrary (Housing Construction Fell Again in March) Since the moratorium 'expired' foreclosures have surged.
  3. Speaking of the consumer, unemployment is clearly headed towards 10+%, easy. Probably 11+%. Worse than the stress tests presume, and the Administration forecasts. Much more downward pressure on spending in the future, with subsequent problems for CRE, corporate loans, small business loans, etc etc....
  4. Other Macro problems remain, esp in Europe and Japan. How bad can these get? Well, I'd be planning for the worst, as the worst has consistently been surprising people ever since august 2007. I rather took the Central and Eastern Euros at their word two months ago that their situation was dire. Not much has happened since then (save for more $ for the IMF from the G-20 - but the UK might suck that up) to cause one to think things there are materially better. If Central and Eastern Europe go down, dominoes fall, starting with Austria (65% leveraged to Eastern Euro banks), then Germany, France etc get very strained. not to mention the slow-motion disaster that the UK has become. Spain, Italy, Ireland, Iceland, Ukraine, Latvia, etc are already in the tank. As for Japan, well, see this: Japan Says Economy in ‘Severe' State, View Unchanged US Banks - esp Citi, remain extremely exposed to all these problems
  5. Despite all the brave talk from Chase and Goldman about giving TARP money back, Citi (and BoA) do not have that luxury. And all banks will see the huge but temporary revenue gift from all the Agency purchases the feds dropped in their laps disappear next quarter. By late Q3, aerly Q4, these guys will be running on fumes, again.

Complacency at green shoots is very dangerous.